Experts Predict Bitcoin Could Drop $20,000 Amid Global Money Supply Decline

2024-12-24 11:39:56 Primitive Reading

From beincrypto by Nhat Hoang

Bitcoin’s 15% correction during the third week of December marked its largest weekly price drop since August. Experts attribute the decline to the impact of global macroeconomic factors, warning that Bitcoin could see further downside if these pressures intensify.

However, Bitcoin also has internal factors to counterbalance the negative impact of the macro.

Global Liquidity Plunges Over the Past Two Months

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin’s price has historically shown a 10-week lagged correlation with Global Money Supply (Global M2). Over the past two months, Global M2 has fallen by $4.1 trillion, signaling potential further declines in Bitcoin prices if the trend continues.

Global M2 is a key economic metric that measures the total supply of money in the global economy, including cash, demand deposits (M1), term deposits, and other liquid assets. Fluctuations in Global M2 often impact both stock and cryptocurrency markets.

“As global money supply hit a new record of $108.5 trillion in October, Bitcoin prices reached an all-time high of $108,000. Over the last 2 months, however, money supply has dropped by $4.1 trillion, to $104.4 trillion, the lowest since August. If the relationship still holds, this suggests that Bitcoin prices could fall as much as $20,000 over the next few weeks.” – The Kobeissi Letter predicted.

Bitcoin Price vs. Global Money Supply. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

A month ago, Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Bitcoin custody firm Theya, warned of a potential 20%-25% Bitcoin correction based on similar indicators. That forecast appears to be materializing.

André Dragosch, Head of Research at Bitwise, shares a similar outlook. He anticipates Bitcoin will remain under pressure due to tightening liquidity in the United States. However, he highlights an internal Bitcoin factor that could counterbalance this liquidity squeeze: Bitcoin’s growing illiquid supply.

Disclaimer: This specification is preliminary and is subject to change at any time without notice. Amazon Finance assumes no responsibility for any errors contained herein.