Analyst: Bitcoin market cycle does not revolve around halving events

2025-08-27 14:09:03 Primitive Reading

　James Check, chief analyst at Glassnode, said that the market cycle of Bitcoin is not anchored as commonly believed in the halving event, but is driven by other factors that alternate between bull and bear markets. "In my opinion, Bitcoin has gone through three cycles, but they are not centered around the halving event." Check said on Wednesday that he was referring to the event of reducing mining rewards every four years in the blockchain. He pointed out that the market cycle actually operates around "adoption trends and market structure", with the market peak in 2017 and the bottom in 2022 being key turning points. Check divided the first three cycles into: "Adoption Cycle" (2011 to 2018), driven by early adoption by retail investors; "Growth Period Cycle" (2018 to 2022), driven by "wild west-style boom and bust with high leverage"; "Mature Cycle" (2022 to present), driven by "institutional maturity and stability". He said: "The situation changed after the bear market in 2022, those who assume history will repeat itself may miss the real signals because they are focused on historical noise."

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